Nils Grevenbrock
Max Groneck
Alexander Ludwig
Alexander Zimper
This paper investigates the roles psychological biases play in deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities (OSPs). We model deviations between SSBs and OSPs through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates suggest that implied measures for cognitive weakness increase and relative optimism decrease with age. We document that direct measures of cognitive weakness and optimism share these trends. Our regression analyses con rm that these factors play strong quantitative roles in the formation of subjective survival beliefs. Our main finding is that cognitive weakness rather than optimism is an increasingly important contributor to the well-documented overestimation of survival chances in old age.
Publication Type
Working Paper
File Description
First version, March 24, 2020
JEL Codes
D83: Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief
D91: Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
I10: Health, Education, and Welfare, General
subjective survival beliefs
probability weighting function
confirmatory bias