Pamela Giustinelli

Predicting group decisions with uncertain outcomes involves the empirically difficult task of disentangling individual decision makers' beliefs and preferences over outcomes' states from the group's decision rule. This paper addresses the problem within the context of a consequential family decision concerning the high school track of adolescent children in presence of curricular stratification. The paper combines novel data on children's and parents' probabilistic beliefs, their stated choice preferences, and families' decision rules with standard data on actual choices to estimate a simple model of curriculum choice featuring both uncertainty and heterogeneous cooperative-type decisions. The model's estimates are used to quantify the impact on curriculum enrollment of policies affecting family members' expectations via awareness campaigns, publication of education statistics, and changes in curricular specialization and standards. The latter exercise reveals that identity of policy recipients--whether children, parents, or both--matters for enrollment response, and underlines the importance of incorporating information on decision makers' beliefs and decision rules when evaluating policies.

JEL Codes
C25: Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
C35: Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
C50: Econometric Modeling: General
C71: Cooperative Games
C81: Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
C83: Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
D19: Household Behavior and Family Economics: Other
D81: Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D84: Expectations; Speculations
I29: Education: Other
J24: Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
choice under uncertainty
multilateral choice
heterogeneous decision rules
curricular tracking
curriculum choice
child-parent decision making
subjective probabilities
stated and revealed preferences
choice-based sampling