Author(s)  
Ying Feng, David Lagakos, James E. Rauch

This paper draws on household survey data from countries of all income levels to measure how average unemployment rates vary with income per capita. We document that unemployment is increasing with GDP per capita. Furthermore, we show that this fact is accounted for almost entirely by low-educated workers, whose unemployment rates are strongly increasing in GDP per capita, rather than by high-educated workers, whose unemployment rates are not correlated with income. To interpret these facts, we build a model with workers of heterogeneous ability and two sectors: a traditional sector, in which self-employed workers produce output without reward for ability; and a modern sector, in which firms hire in frictional labor markets, and output increases with ability. Countries differ exogenously in the productivity level of the modern sector. The model predicts that as productivity rises, the traditional sector shrinks, as progressively less-able workers enter the modern sector, leading to a rise in overall unemployment and in the ratio of low-educated to high-educated unemployment rates. Quantitatively, the model accounts for around one third of the cross-country patterns we document.

JEL Codes  
E24: Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital
E26: Informal Economy; Underground Economy
O11: Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O41: One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Keywords  
unemployment
causal effects of education
ability effects
household survey data