Author(s)  
Christopher Busch
Dirk Krueger
Alexander Ludwig
Irina Popova
Zainab Iftikhar
In 2015-2016 Germany experienced a wave of predominantly low-skilled refugee immigration. We evaluate its macroeconomic and distributional effects using a quantitative overlapping generations model calibrated using German micro data to replicate education and productivity differentials between foreign born and native workers. Workers are modelled as imperfect substitutes in aggregate production leading to endogenous wage differentials. We simulate the dynamic effects of this refugee wave, with specific focus on the welfare impact on low skilled natives. Our results indicate that the small losses this group suffers can be compensated by welfare gains of other parts of the native population.
Publication Type  
Working Paper
File Description  
First version, March, 2020
JEL Codes  
F22: International Migration
E20: Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data)
H55: Social Security and Public Pensions
Keywords  
immigration
refugees
overlapping generations
demographic change